Weekly Grain Digest - 1st December 2017

The COFCO UK Weekly Digest brings together a wealth of global grain intelligence to summarise this week's market drivers for grains and oilseeds.

Grain

Russian exports at near record pace
Sterling volatility following 'divorce deal'
CBOT hits fresh 52 week low
Market View:
Currency volatility has been a major influence on UK grain markets this week as finally Britain and the EU have negotiated a ‘divorce deal’ enabling the next round of trade negotiations to begin. Sterling broke over the 1.1450 GBP/EUR rate for the first time since mid June hitting a high of 1.1507 on Friday. This in turn put pressure on Liffe futures before Sterling retraced heavily back down to circa 1.1360 (at the time of writing) allowing futures to recover, leaving them just below unchanged on the week.

Meanwhile, the sheer scale of Russian supplies was highlighted by news that Russia hit a near record export pace for November which added further pressure to market sentiment.

In the US, the fundamental global supply and demand picture continues to outweigh the possible effects of the current cold and dry spell that much of the country is experiencing. For the second consecutive week the CBOT March 18 contract hit a fresh 52 week low trading down to 419.25 cents per bushel.

Whilst UK wheat exports were already uncompetitive, the recent rise in Sterling is now impacting barley demand with cheaper French supplies undercutting UK offers.
 

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